Australia’s east coast may be on the brink of a worsening energy crisis.
Recent research by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) concluded that annual production from our nation’s southern gas fields could fall by more than 30 per cent over the next five years.
And by 2029, daily production capacity from existing, committed, and anticipated southern fields is projected to decrease by 47 per cent.
The southern gas fields, which include the Gippsland and Otway Basins, have historically been critical to Victoria’s gas supply.
And AEMO’s forecast now suggests that Victoria could be facing annual shortfalls amounting to hundreds of petajoules of gas.
This projection was recently compounded by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) in its latest gas inquiry report.
The ACCC found that the east coast gas supply outlook for 2025 and 2026 had deteriorated, despite an easing in gas prices in the second half of 2024.
It warned of the risk for a gas shortfall as early as the fourth quarter of 2025 and persisting into next year.
Amidst these concerns, Emperor Energy (ASX: EMP) holds a strategically significant asset with potential to reshape the east coast supply landscape.
More specifically, its wholly owned Vic/P47 permit in the Gippsland Basin contains the Judith gas field which could play a key role in addressing the looming shortfall.
Emperor Energy’s Judith gas field
The Gippsland Basin is a premiere hydrocarbon province strategically positioned as a new source of domestic gas supply to south-eastern Australia.
Notably, it can directly connect to the Eastern Gas Pipeline (EGP) which already provides gas to Melbourne, Sydney, and Adelaide.
At the heart of this basin lies Emperor’s Vic/P47 permit and its large-scale Judith gas field.
The project lies within reach of critical infrastructure and adjacent to operations owned by major energy companies Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS).
And the Orbost Gas Plant – operated by Amplitude – sits just 40km onshore.
This infrastructure-rich setting could help Emperor fast-track development of the Judith gas field with reduced capital intensity.
Management believes the project is significantly derisked through Shell’s (LSE: SHEL) Judith-1 discovery well in 1989, which intersected 189 metres of gas-bearing sands but was never flow-tested.
And it already holds a 166 Bcf (P50) 2C Contingent Resource surrounding the Judith-1 well, and a 1.86 Tcf (P50) Prospective Resource across the broader Judith gas field.
Path to development
In essence, Emperor is now focused on drilling the Judith-2 appraisal well and brining the Judith gas field to production.
The company recently commenced a formal farm-in process designed to secure an investment consortium to support the drilling. It is also in advanced talks to procure a jack-up rig already operating in the Gippsland Basin.
Meanwhile, Emperor recently strengthened its leadership team with the appointment of veteran oil and gas executive Malcolm King as company director.
Curiously, Mr King served as Shell’s wellsite geologist during the original Judith-1 gas discovery well.
His appointment appears to show confidence in the prospectivity of the Judith gas field and the upcoming Judith-2 well.
Reflecting on Judith-1 discovery, Malcolm King commented:
“There were very strong gas shows, irrespective of the heavily overweighted drilling fluid in use to suppress the well. We were sure on the drilling rig that we had found something really big.”
A successful Judith-2 well could unlock a 2P Gas Reserve of as much as 308 Bcf, with further upside potential beyond that.
Drilling of the well is scheduled for mid-2026.